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Rate Brief

Updated: 2014-04-16, 16:00:24 ET

The Interest Rate Outlook

  • The Fed tapered its asset purchase program by another $10 bln at the March meeting, meaning it will buy $55 bln worth of Treasury securities each month.
  • The meeting also saw the Fed alter its forward guidance to take into account "a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments."
  • Many continue to believe the Fed's slow exit from QE means the U.S. economy is on the mend and rates will rise. 
  • Wednesday's announced did cause yields across the curve to jump, but the curve flattened as the biggest impact was seen up front. 
  • In fact, the spread between 5s and 30s is now flatter than when taper talk first began at the beginning of May.
  • The spread has broken below the important 200bp level, and now looks likely to test the 150bp area.