Skip to Site Navigation | Skip to Content

Briefing.com is the leading Internet provider of live market analysis for U.S. Stock, U.S. Bond, and world FX market participants.

Update: 2015-03-27 15:55:16 ET

Moving the Market

- Q4 GDP (3rd Estimate): Actual 2.2%, Briefing.com Consensus 2.4%, Prior 2.2%

- Q4 GDP Deflator (3rd Estimate): Actual 0.1%, Briefing.com Consensus 0.1%, Prior 0.1%

- March Michigan Consumer Sentiment -- Final: Actual 93.0, Briefing.com Consensus 92.0, Prior 91.2

- Fed Chair Yellen speaks in San Francisco (15:45 ET)


3/27/2015
3:30:07 ET
10-Year:12/32 1.95    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0903    USD/JPY:119.08   
Treasuries Make Back Some Losses:
  • Without any obvious catalysts, Treasury notes and bonds ground higher throughout the day to recover some of their losses from yesterday's shelling. Only the 2-year note, however, made back all of the losses
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: -3 bps to 0.57%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.42%
    • 10-yr: -4 bps to 1.95%
    • 30-yr: -6 bps to 2.53%
  • News:
    • The 3rd revision to 2014 Q4 GDP missed estimates at 2.2%, versus a Briefing.com consensus of 2.4%, and a second estimate of 2.2%. Q3 GDP in 2014 was 5.0%
    • The 3rd revision to the 2014 Q4 GDP deflator as 0.1%, in line with consensus estimates and the prior revision
      • Real final sales saw a slight upward revision to 2.3% from 2.1%, but nothing changed the fact that growth slowed significantly in Q4
      • Markets shrugged off the announcement
    • The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March exceeded the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 92.0, coming in at 93.0. The read in February was 91.2Gree
    • Greece submitted a new proposal to the Brussels Group, which will examine it over the weekend. The plan calls for 3 billion euro in additional government revenue and a primary budget surplus of 1.5%
    • Cyprus' credit outlook was raised to positive from stable at S&P, and they reaffirmed its B+ rating
  • Commodities:
    • WTI Crude fell $3.04 (-5.91%) to $48.39/bbl. The geopolitical risk premium from unrest in Yemen came out today
    • Copper fell 5 cents (-1.69%) to $2.76/lb.
    • Gold fell $5.30 (-0.44%) to $1199.50/troy oz.
  • Currencies:
    • EUR/USD: +24 pips (+0.22%) to $1.0905
    • USD/JPY: -11 pips (-0.9%) 119.08
  • Week Ahead
    • Monday: February Personal Income and Personal Spending (08:30 ET); February PCE Prices -- Core (08:30 ET); February Pending Home Sales (10:00 ET); Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks at dinner before the 2015 Financial Markets Conference (19:15 ET)
    • Tuesday: Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC voter) speaks on the "Economic Outlook, March 2015" (08:00 ET); January Case-Shiller 20-City Index (09:00 ET); March Chicago PMI (09:45 ET); March Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET); Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) moderates panel before the 2015 Financial Markets Conference (10:15 ET); Kansas City Fed President George (non-FOMC voter) speaks on the U.S. economy (15:00 ET)
    • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index for week ending 3/28 (07:00 ET); February ADP Employment Report (08:15 ET); San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) moderates panel before the 2015 Financial Markets Conference (08:30 ET); March ISM Index (10:00 ET); February Construction Spending (10:00 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending 3/28 (10:30 ET); March Auto and Truck Sales (17:00 ET); Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC voter) chairs panel before the 2015 Financial Markets Conference (time TBA)
    • Thursday: March Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET); Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) gives opening remarks before conference on economic mobility (08:30 ET); Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (08:30 ET); February Trade Balance (08:30 ET); February Factory Orders (10:00 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 3/28 (10:30 ET); Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (non-FOMC voter) and St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-FOMC voter) participate in conference on economic mobility (time TBA)
    • Friday: March Employment Report (08:30 ET); Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (non-FOMC voter) gives welcome remarks before economic mobility conference (08:30 ET); St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-FOMC voter) gives remarks and introduces keynote speaker at conference on economic mobility (event begins at 12:30 ET)

 
3/27/2015
2:50:18 ET
10-Year:10/32 1.96    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0894    USD/JPY:119.13   
Pound Sterling Rallies on BoE Remarks:
  • The British pound rallied today on hawkish remarks from BoE Governor Carney and Monetary Policy Committee member Broadbent
    • They both dispelled notions of a rate cute, with Carney saying that the next move would most likely be up
    • Broadbent said that "the likelihood of a broad and protracted deflation, afflicting wages as aw prices, is pretty low."
    • GBP/USD rallied 23 pips (0.16%) on the day to $1.4876
  • EUR/USD rallied throughout the morning, but was spurred higher just before noon ET by the announcement that Cyprus' outlook was upped to positive from stable, at B+, and that Greece's banks are considered solvent by the ECB. It is now trading up 15 pips (0.14%) to $1.0896
  • The commodity currencies were mixed, despite a 5.19% fall in WTI Crude to $48.76/bbl
    • USD/CAD: +115 pips (+0.92%) to 125.96
    • AUD/USD: -79 pips (-1.01%) to $0.7754
    • NZD/USD: -19 pips (-0.25%) to $0.7573
  • USD/JPY fell 8 pips (-0.07%) to 119.11

 
3/27/2015
1:19:10 ET
10-Year:8/32 1.96    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0923    USD/JPY:119.17   
Treasuries Back off of Highs:
  • Treasuries have been trading slightly lower over the past hour, as EUR/USD caught a strong bid, rallying over half of a big figure on news that the ECB considers Greek banks to be solvent. This is according to the head of its supervisory arm, Daniele Nouy and was originally reported by Reuters.
  • In other Eurozone news, S&P raised Cyprus's outlook to positive from stable and affirmed its credit rating at B+
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.58%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.42%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.96%
    • 30-yr: -4 bps to 2.54%
  • Equities continue sideways after a volatile week. The S&P 500 is up 2.12 points (0.10%) to 20,58.27

 
3/27/2015
12:07:33 ET
10-Year:9/32 1.96    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0888    USD/JPY:119.16   
Treasuries Hang Close to Highs:
  • The curve has been flattening over the past hour, as both equities and fixed income refuse to move aggressively ahead of Yellen's remarks later today
  • Greece will be sending its proposal of economic reforms to euro zone and IMF lenders today
    • Those latter two parties, collectively termed the Brussels Group, will review the proposal beginning tonight or tomorrow
    • The proposal, according to Reuters, will boost government revenue by 3 billion euro this year, without wage or pension cuts
    • The proposal estimates a primary budget surplus of 1.5% for 2015, lower than the 3% that is assumed in the current EU/IMF bailout
  • Yanis Varoufakis is now personally denying the rumors of his resignation
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.58%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.42%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.96%
    • 30-yr: -4 bps to 2.54%

 
3/27/2015
11:29:30 ET
10-Year:+07/32 1.965%    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0864    USD/JPY:119.19   
Markets take a Breather: The Dollar Index was able to rally to 97.90 in early trade. But, after an initial pop at the open of European equity trading, the greenback has come under selling pressure. The DXY is no back down to the 97.25 area which is so far holding support. Currency movements have cooled off following a very volatile week. This afternoon, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking oin the future of monetary policy. Markets are not expecting much in the way of news as Ms. Yellen just held her policy meeting press conference last week. But there will still be plenty of eyeballs on the speech which will hit 15 minutes before the close of equity trading.
  • The euro was hit by some early selling as it fell a quick 60 pips at the open of European equity trading. But it was able to hold the 1.0820 level and has regained the majority of its early losses. 
  • The pound is stronger this morning as it climbs back to test 1.49 for resistance. Sterling has yet to prove it can break above and hold the key 1.50 psyche level so the burden remains on buyers. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has said it is more likely that the central bank would raise rates than cut rates as its next step. This has helped provide a bid for cable. But the move has been limited as the expectations for any type of hike continue to be pushed out by weak inflation data.
  • The yen is probing the 119 area but is seeing resistance. We hate to sound like a broken record but this simply remains in a consolidating phase. It was a busy night on the economic front as the country reported Household Spending (beat), CPI (miss), and Retail Sales (miss).

 
3/27/2015
11:13:19 ET
10-Year:7/32 1.97    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0873    USD/JPY:119.17   
Holding Gains:
  • We have lower yields in all maturities at late morning, as stocks and bonds await Fed Chair Yellen's speech at 15:45 ET
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.59%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.42%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.97%
    • 30-yr: -3 bps to 2.55%
  • There has been no further information about the rumors that Yanis Varoufakis might resign as Greece's finance minister
    • According to sources, the celebrity photo shoot with his wife for a French magazine angered people in the Syriza party
  • WTI Crude continues to deflate the geopolitical risk premium, falling $1.55 (-3.03%) to $49.88/bbl
  • The S&P 500 is trying to claw back some of this week's losses, up 5.22 points (0.25%) to 2,061.37

 
3/27/2015
10:11:06 ET
10-Year:7/32 1.97    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0870    USD/JPY:119.06   
Treasuries Find a Bid:
  • Treasuries are marching higher this morning, recouping some of their losses from Thursday
  • The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March beat expectations at 93.0, versus a Briefing.com Consensus of 92.0 and a reading of 91.2 for February
  • Yield check: 
    • 2-yr: -3 bps to 0.57%
    • 5-yr: -3 bps to 1.42%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.96%
    • 30-yr: -3 bps to 2.55%
  • Positioning should be tentative ahead of this afternoon's Yellen testimony

 
3/27/2015
8:59:02 ET
10-Year:5/32 1.98    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0887    USD/JPY:119.11   
3rd Revision to Q4 GDP Falls Short of Expectations:
  • GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2014 was unrevised in the 3rd estimate, and remained at 2.2%. The Briefing.com consensus had called for an upward revision to 2.4%, and GDP growth in Q3 2014 was 5.0%
  • Real final sales saw a slight upward revision to 2.3% from 2.1%, but nothing in the data altered the notion that economic growth trends slowed down significantly in the fourth quarter
  • As expected from the Quarterly Services Survey, consumption growth was revised up to 4.4% in the third estimate from 4.2% in the second estimate. Goods consumption increased 4.8%, up from a 4.5% gain in the second estimate, and services consumption increased 4.3%, up from a previously reported 3.8% increase
  • Total fixed investment and government spending were unrevised in the latest GDP reading. The trade deficit was revised down modestly to $471.4 bln in the third estimate from $476.4 bln
  • The Treasury complex had a muted response, but was slightly higher after the data
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr:-2 bps to 0.59%
    • 5-yr: -1 bp to 1.44%
    • 10-yr: -2 bps to 1.98%
    • 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.56%

 
3/27/2015
8:16:12 ET
10-Year:2/32 1.98    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0871    USD/JPY:119.18   
Gilt Yields Rise on Carney and Broadbent Remarks:
  • Eurozone sovereign yields remained little changed on Friday, as the post-quantitative easing volatility seems to have abated
  • Rumors that Yanis Varoufakis would be resigning as the finance minister of Greece were quickly denied by the Greek government
    • The German paper Bild quoted an insider in the Greek government, who said it was a "matter of time" and a "done deal"
  • The pound sterling and Gilt yields rose on remarks out of the Bank of England
    • Last Thursday, BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane had fueled speculation of rate cuts by saying "policy needs to stand ready to move off either foot in the period ahead"
    • Today, this speculation was quashed, first by Mark Carney, BoE governor, who said that the next rate move was likely to be up
    • Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the BoE and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, reinforced Carney's remarks. He said that "the likelihood of a broad and protracted deflation, afflicting wages as well as prices, is pretty low."
  • Yield check:
    • France, 10-yr OAT: unch at 0.50%
    • Germany, 10-yr Bund: unch at 0.19%
    • Greece, 10-yr note: +7 bps to 10.84%
    • Italy, 10-yr note: unch at 1.32%
    • Portugal, 10-yr note: -5 bps to 1.76%
    • Spain, 10-yr Bono: +1 bp to 1.29%
    • U.K., 10-yr Gilt: +10 bps to 1.62%

 
3/27/2015
7:22:00 ET
10-Year:1/32 1.99    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0856    USD/JPY:119.33   
Treasuries Struggle to Bounce:
  • After a bruising Thursday for the U.S. Treasury complex that erased most of the post-FOMC gains, governments are not finding much of a bid going into this afternoon's testimony from Fed Chair Yellen
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: unch at 0.60%
    • 5-yr: unch at 1.45%
    • 10-yr: unch at 1.99%
    • 30-yr: unch at 2.58%
  • International News:
    • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the next move in rates is likely up, quashing uncertainty in the markets about the direction of monetary policy that followed comments last Thursday by BoE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane
      • The pound sterling rose following Carney's remarks
      • Haldane had said that the BoE must stand ready to cut rates, but does not seem to have found support from other members of the Monetary Policy Committee
    • Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the BoE, said that "the likelihood of a broad and protracted deflation, afflicting wages as well as prices, is pretty low."
      • GBP/USD is up 45 pips (0.30%) to $1.4898
      • The 10-year Gilt yield rose 13 basis points to 1.65%
    • Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said that "The available data paint a picture of a non-bank sector that has generally reduced its vulnerability to the types of shocks that we saw during the crisis" He spoke at 06:30 ET in Frankfurt, Germany
    • Japan's CPI for February touched 0%, renewing fears of deflation
    • WTI Crude fell back to $50.64/bbl, down 1.54% from yesterday's close, as traders reassessed the risk that political unrest in Yemen will disrupt Saudi exports
  • Data Out Friday: 
    • Q4 GDP and GDP Deflator (3rd Estimate) (08:30 ET)
    • March Michigan Consumer Sentiment -- Final (10:00 ET)
    • Fed Chair Yellen speaks in San Francisco (15:45 ET)

 
3/26/2015
3:27:28 ET
10-Year:-22/32 2.008    GNMAs:     EUR/USD:1.0880    USD/JPY:119.27   
Belly and Long End of Curve Down Sharply
  • Treasuries followed through on yesterday's selling today in a curve-steepening trade. The 2-year note only rose 1 basis point, to the 30-year's 9-basis point increase
  • The Treasury complex had every reason to go higher yesterday, with the major U.S. equity indices losing at least 1.5%. The failure to rally yesterday, in such a favorable environment for government bonds, may have dented investor sentiment
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: +1 bp to 0.62%
    • 5-yr: +5 bps to 1.47%
    • 10-yr: +8 bps to 2.01%
    • 30-yr: +9 bps to 2.60%
  • News:
    • Initial Jobless Claims came in slightly better than expected at 282K, versus a Briefing.com consensus of 290K and 291K for the prior week
    • Continuing Claims were 2416K, versus a Briefing.com consensus of 2415K and a prior number of 2422K (revised up from 2417K)
      • The Treasury complex sold in reaction
    • Atlanta Fed President Lockhart did an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box," saying that economic growth in the first quarter appears very soft
      • He also said that liftoff in rates should be at the June, July, or September meeting
      • Dennis Lockhart is considered a moderate member of the FOMC, and he is a voter
    • The $29 billion 7-year note auction met tepid demand, much like the $35 billion 5-year auction yesterday, with a bid-to-cover ratio that was lower than we've seen in years
      • High yield: 1.792%
      • Bid-to-cover ratio: 2.32
      • Indirect bid: 50.5%
  • Commodities:
    • WTI Crude has rallied sharply over the past 2 days on geopolitical trouble in Yemen
      • Saudi Arabia has initiated airstrikes on Houthi rebel forces
      • President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi has gone into hiding
      • Yemen exports less than 150k barrels of crude oil per day, but its strategic location next to the strait through which Saudi Arabia exports its oil to Asia has concerned the oil market
    • Gold rose $5.50 (0.46%) to $1202.50/troy oz.
    • Copper rose 0.47% to $2.81/lb.
  • Currencies:
    • EUR/USD: -86 pips (-0.78%) to %1.0880
    • USD/JPY: -28 pips (-0.23%) to 119.24
  • Data Out Friday:
    • Q4 GDP and GDP Deflator (3rd Estimate) (08:30 ET)
    • March Michigan Consumer Sentiment -- Final (10:00 ET)